Their mathematical model suggests a rise in cases of infection this month and a peak of over 1 lakh of daily cases in October in the worst-case scenario. “There will be a slight increase towards the end of August and through September. It’s mainly because the lockdown is lifted. It’s not due to any new variant. So, without a new variant, the third wave will just be a ripple,” Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur, who is involved with the national ‘super model’ initiative known as Sutra, told TOI.
It is good news that a new model suggests that a potential third wave is likely to be less severe. However, there’s no reason to drop our guard. Rather, one should be on the watch. Covid-appropriate behaviour must continue. And yes, vaccination must be speeded up to optimum levels.
Underlining that peak of daily cases may be much lower (around only 50,000 cases) , he said, “If the third wave comes, the load on hospitals will be even lower than the first wave situation.” The analysis and graph, released by researchers in early July, show that the overall number will eventually start tapering down after peak in October and is most likely to reach at a negligible number in December.