According to the predictions for the poll-bound states, the SP is likely to emerge as a big challenger to the BJP in UP while the AAP could come within sniffing distance of a historic win in Punjab.
An opinion poll by ABP-CVoter has also predicted a BJP victory in the high-stakes battle in Uttar Pradesh, albeit with a depleted seat share of 223-235. The opinion has predicted that SP could win up to 157 seats in the UP elections.
The ABP-CVoter opinion poll has also predicted hung assembly in Punjab and a neck-and-neck contest between BJP and Congress in Uttarakhand.
Here are the Times Now-Veto opinion poll projections …
The BJP is set to retain power in the politically crucial state of UP but will witness a significant loss of seats in 2022, the Times Now opinion poll predicted.
According to the opinion poll, the saffron party is likely to win between 227 to 254 seats in the 403-member assembly, down from 312 in 2017.
On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party is likely to see major gains in its seat share this year, with the Akhilesh Yadav-led outfit projected to win 136 to 151 seats, up from 47 in 2017.
The Congress is expected to repeat its lackluster performance of 2017 and win just 6-11 seats, the opinion poll predicted.
The survey said that the Mayawati-led BSP is projected to win 8-14 seats, a marginal dip from 19 in 2017.
If the projections hold true, Yogi Adityanath will break the jinx in UP where no chief minister has been voted to power for a second consecutive term in the last 35 years.
The opinion poll predicted that BJP is likely to grab a vote share of 39.4%, just a marginal dip from 39.6% in 2017. The SP is projected to increase its vote share from 21.82% in 2017 to 34.6% in the coming elections.
The BSP and Congress are projected to bag 12.9% and 6.9% of the votes respectively.
The Times Now survey has predicted that Punjab could be headed for a hung assembly with AAP likely to emerge as the single-largest party, winning 54-58 out of 117 seats.
The survey predicted that the ruling Congress is expected to fall short of the majority mark and may win 41 to 47 seats in the February 14 elections. The BJP, which has faced the ire of farmers during the year-long anti-farm law protests, is projected to win just 1-3 seats.
SAD, a dominant force in Punjab just a few years ago, is projected to win between 11 to 15 seats, according to the survey. If the projections hold true, the Sukhbir Badal-led party could play the role of kingmaker.
The survey said that AAP is likely to win a vote share of over 41% while the Congress could bag 33.7% of the votes.
In 2017, the Congress had won the mandate in Punjab by winning 70 seats while the AAP had won in 20 constituencies. The BJP and Akali had won 18 seats combined.
Rumblings in the Punjab Congress led to the resignation of chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh last year. Singh later quit the Congress and formed his own party, which is contesting in alliance with the BJP.
The Congress installed dalit face Charanjit Channi as its chief minister in the run up to the polls.
The opinion poll predicted a cruising victory for the ruling BJP in the hill state, with the party projected to win 44-50 seats in the 70-member assembly. However, BJP’s projected seat share is almost 10 less than its 2017 tally.
The Congress is predicted to emerge as a distant second with just 12-15 seats while debutant AAP is projected to clinch 5-8 seats.
The survey predicted a handsome vote share of 43.09% for the BJP. Congress and AAP are projected to bag 30% and 16% of the votes respectively.
According to the survey, incumbent Pushkar Singh Dhami is the top pick for the CM post with 42.34% respondents voting in his favour. Congress’s Harish Rawat is the second most popular choice with 23.89% of the votes.
In 2017, the BJP had stormed to power in Uttarakhand with 57 seats while the Congress managed to win just 11.
However, the ruling dispensation saw change of two chief ministers within a span of a few months in 2020.
While the state has seen power altering between BJP and Congress over the years, the entry of AAP this time has queered the poll pitch.
The Times Now opinion poll has projected 17-21 seats for the BJP in the 40-member Goa assembly, which means the party may manage to scrape past the majority mark.
According to the survey, the Aam Aadmi Party is likely to get 8-11 seats while the Congress may bag 4-6 seats.
The BJP is projected to win 29.5% of the total votes, AAP 27.8% and Congress 18.56%, the survey found.
In 2017, the BJP had sprung a surprise in Goa. The saffron party had won only 13 seats while Congress won in 17 constituencies. However, BJP staked claim to form the government with the support of 3 MGP MLAs, 3 GFP MLAs, two Independents and an NCP MLA under the leadership of former chief minister Manohar Parrikar who resigned as defence minister to return to the coastal state.
This time, the AAP and TMC have also entered Goa’s political scene, turning it into a multi-cornered contest.
The survey found that incumbent chief minister Pramod Sawant is the most popular leader in the state, with 24.50% of the respondents choosing him for the top post.
Elections from February 10, results on March 10
Elections in the five states will begin on February 10 and conclude on March 7. The counting of votes will take place on March 10, the Election Commission had announced.
Uttar Pradesh will go to polls in seven phases from February 10 to March 7 while Manipur will vote in two phases on February 27 and March 3.
Voting in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa will be held in a single phase on February 14.